Evidence Base

Research & Data

Missing Persons draws on peer-reviewed research, government data, expert analysis, and investigative reporting. The sources below inform selected claims explored by the project.

Neuroscience & Psychology

The Brain Under Confinement

Criminal Justice and Behavior  ·  Peer-Reviewed Study

Cognitive Decline as a Result of Incarceration and the Effects of a CBT/MT Intervention

Rebecca Umbach, Adrian Raine & Noelle R. Leonard

A cluster-randomized controlled trial with 197 incarcerated males aged 16 to 18 measured changes in cognitive control, emotion regulation, and emotion recognition over approximately four months. Performance on all three measures declined for the control group. A cognitive behavioral therapy and mindfulness training intervention limited decline in cognitive control and emotion regulation, but not emotion recognition.

Key Finding Even over a short period, incarceration was associated with measurable declines in cognitive-task performance and emotional processing in youth. CBT/MT reduced but did not eliminate that decline.
Umbach et al., 2018  ·  DOI: 10.1177/0093854817736345 Read Full Study (PMC) →
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology  ·  Historical Research (1965)

Psychosis in Prison

Richard J. Thurrell, Seymour L. Halleck & Arvid F. Johnsen

An early clinical analysis, now more than sixty years old, arguing that the prison environment itself, through restriction of meaningful relationships and productive activity, functions as a precipitating factor in psychotic episodes among incarcerated people. The authors contend that idleness and severed social bonds produce atrophy that manifests as psychiatric breakdown.

Authors' Argument The authors argued that the prison environment can precipitate psychosis, a clinical interpretation, not a controlled study result. It predates the modern literature on carceral harm by sixty years.
Thurrell, Halleck & Johnsen, 1965  ·  Northwestern Scholarly Commons Download PDF →
U.S. Dept. of Health & Human Services  ·  Expert Paper

The Psychological Impact of Incarceration: Implications for Post-Prison Adjustment

Craig Haney, University of California Santa Cruz

An expert paper prepared for HHS analyzing institutionalization as a psychological process: incarcerated people develop dependence on institutional structure, hypervigilance, emotional over-control, and diminished self-worth. These are adaptations that make prison survivable but become serious barriers to reintegration after release.

Expert Analysis The psychological transformation produced by incarceration is largely invisible to the criminal justice system, yet Haney argues it creates persistent barriers to post-release adjustment that most reentry policy fails to address.
Craig Haney, 2001  ·  ASPE / HHS Read Full Paper →
Psychology Today  ·  Expert Commentary

How Prison Quietly Reshapes Human Identity

Sigifredo Castell Britton, Ph.D.

Commentary drawing on psychological research and clinical observation: prolonged incarceration gradually replaces a person's pre-existing identity with an institutional self, a survival-adapted persona that persists after release and shapes behavior in ways the legal sentence never intended. The underlying scholarly literature is cited in the article.

Author's Argument Castell Britton argues that identity fragmentation and loss of belonging, not criminal intent alone, drive continued difficulties post-release, and that the prison identity continues operating psychologically even after the sentence ends.
Castell Britton, 2026  ·  Psychology Today Read Article →
Comparative Analysis

Isolation Across Environments

What happens to people in Antarctica, space, prison, and military confinement, and what the parallels reveal.

Comparison of isolation environments, durations, stressors, brain changes, and key researchers across Antarctica, space, prison, solitary confinement, and military confinement
Environment Duration Primary Stressors Observed Brain Changes Key Researcher
Antarctica (Winter-Over) 8 to 14 months Sensory monotony, social constriction, darkness, confinement Reduced dentate-gyrus volume, lower BDNF (n=8 to 12; preliminary finding requiring replication) Stahn et al., Charité / U Penn (NEJM 2019)
Space (ISS / Long Duration) 6 to 12+ months Microgravity, isolation, loss of autonomy, distance from family Cognitive and emotional changes documented; specific brain-structure effects vary by study Dr. Phyllis Johnson, UBC; NASA Human Research Program
Prison (General Population) Months to decades Chronic threat, loss of agency, social deprivation, sensory stress PTSD, executive function impairment, hypervigilance; BDNF suppression observed in animal isolation models Sapolsky (Stanford); Smeyne (Jefferson), animal models; Haney (UCSC), psychological
Solitary Confinement Days to years Extreme sensory deprivation, total social isolation, loss of identity Hallucinations, dissociation, self-harm, permanent psychological damage Multiple (Haney; Smith)
Military Confinement (POW) Weeks to years Fear, physical stress, unpredictability, loss of identity Complex PTSD, amygdala hyperreactivity, memory fragmentation VA / DoD Research

It seems like we have been sentenced to trauma

— Eric VanZant, Advocate & Author
Public Health

The Crisis After Release

New England Journal of Medicine  ·  Peer-Reviewed Study

Release from Prison, A High Risk of Death for Former Inmates

Ingrid A. Binswanger et al., Washington State cohort, 1999 to 2003

Tracking mortality among 30,237 people released from Washington State prisons between 1999 and 2003, this study established that the post-release period is among the most medically dangerous transitions a person can face, with sharply elevated risk of death from overdose, cardiovascular disease, homicide, and suicide compared to the general population.

Key Finding Overall mortality risk in the first two weeks after release was 12.7 times higher than in the general population. Drug-overdose death risk in that same window was 129 times higher.
Binswanger et al., 2007  ·  NEJM View Published Study →
U.S. Surgeon General's Office  ·  Government Advisory

Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation

Dr. Vivek Murthy, U.S. Surgeon General

The 2023 Surgeon General's advisory documents the broad health consequences of social disconnection, finding that lacking adequate social connection can be as dangerous as smoking up to 15 cigarettes a day. The advisory does not address incarceration directly; the connection to people who are incarcerated or recently released is an editorial inference drawn by this project.

Key Finding Lacking adequate social connection can be as dangerous as smoking up to 15 cigarettes per day. The advisory calls for treating social connection as a public health priority. (Note: the incarceration application below is this project's inference, not a finding in the advisory itself.)
Murthy, 2023  ·  HHS Advisory (PDF) Download Full Report →
Pharmacology Biochemistry and Behavior  ·  Peer-Reviewed Animal Study

Effect of Early and Later Colony Housing on Oral Ingestion of Morphine in Rats

Bruce K. Alexander, Barry L. Beyerstein, Patricia F. Hadaway & Robert B. Coambs

The original Rat Park study found that rats housed in an enriched, social colony environment consumed dramatically less morphine solution than rats housed in isolated cages, even after forced physical dependence. This is an animal study with acknowledged limits on human generalization. The authors proposed that addiction is shaped substantially by environmental conditions, not only by pharmacology.

Key Finding (animal model) Isolated rats consumed far more morphine than socially housed rats under the same conditions. The authors concluded that environment, not the drug alone, drove consumption, with the explicit caveat that animal-to-human inference requires caution.
Alexander et al., 1981  ·  DOI: 10.1016/0091-3057(81)90211-2 View Published Study →
Bureau of Justice Statistics  ·  Government Data

Mental Health in U.S. Prisons: Prevalence and Treatment

Bureau of Justice Statistics

Federal data on mental health conditions among incarcerated people documents staggering rates of untreated mental illness, and near-total absence of therapeutic intervention. The majority of people leaving prison have unaddressed trauma, depression, or anxiety disorders.

Key Finding Over 55% of people in state prisons meet clinical criteria for a mental health condition. Fewer than 25% receive any mental health treatment during incarceration.
Bureau of Justice Statistics View BJS Report →
BMC Public Health  ·  Peer-Reviewed Qualitative Study (Switzerland)

Psychological Stressors of Imprisonment and Coping Among Older Incarcerated Persons

Stuart McLennan, Leila Meyer, Tenzin Wangmo et al.

Qualitative interviews with older incarcerated people and mental-health professionals in Switzerland identified two dominant stressors: loss of physical and emotional closeness in relationships, and loss of personal autonomy. Participants described five coping strategies, including withdrawal, self-improvement, and maintaining outside connections, to manage conditions that the environment itself does not resolve.

Key Finding Social disconnection and loss of autonomy are the primary drivers of psychological harm in prison. Coping strategies are adaptive but do not address the root conditions that create them. (Sample: older incarcerated adults, Swiss context.)
McLennan et al., 2025  ·  DOI: 10.1186/s12889-025-21452-w View Study →
Journal of General Internal Medicine  ·  Observational Study (Minnesota)

Health Condition Prevalence Among People with Recent Homelessness or Incarceration

Lucas Zellmer, Renee Van Siclen, Peter Bodurtha et al.

An observational analysis of 4.3 million individuals in a Minnesota statewide health system found that people with recent incarceration or homelessness had substantially elevated rates of mental health conditions, substance use disorders, and respiratory illness compared to the general population. The study estimates prevalence, it does not establish that incarceration caused every observed condition. The authors call for payment and care-delivery models that account for this complexity.

Key Finding People with recent incarceration or homelessness present with significantly higher rates of serious co-occurring health conditions than the general population. Current healthcare models are not structured to meet this need.
Zellmer et al., 2025  ·  DOI: 10.1007/s11606-025-09814-x View Study →
Associated Press  ·  Investigative Journalism (ICE detention, 2025 to 2026)

ICE Detainees Dying by Suicide at an "Alarming" Rate

Ryan J. Foley, Michael Biesecker & Morgan Lee (Associated Press)

An AP investigation documented at least 10 deaths by suicide inside ICE detention between January 2025 and mid-2026, a rate public health experts described as unprecedented and alarming. The investigation focuses specifically on civil immigration detention during this period, not the broader U.S. carceral system. Experts attributed the spike to failures in mental health screening and inadequate oversight of detention conditions.

Key Finding Suicide inside ICE civil detention spiked sharply in 2025 to 2026, with public health experts pointing to structural failures in mental health oversight rather than individual risk as the primary driver.
Foley, Biesecker & Lee, 2026  ·  Associated Press Read Investigation →
Recidivism

Who Returns, and Why

Criminology & Public Policy  ·  Peer-Reviewed Meta-Analysis

Custodial Sanctions and Reoffending: A Meta-Analytic Review

Deanna M. Petrich, Travis C. Pratt, Chelsey S. Gau & Jillian J. Turanovic

A meta-analysis of 116 studies examining whether custodial sentences reduce reoffending compared to non-custodial alternatives. The review found that incarceration had a null or slightly criminogenic average effect on recidivism, meaning it neither reliably reduced reoffending nor dramatically worsened it, but that more punitive conditions tended toward worse outcomes.

Key Finding Across 116 studies, custodial sanctions did not outperform non-custodial alternatives in reducing reoffending. More punitive conditions were associated with modestly higher recidivism rates.
Petrich et al., 2021  ·  DOI: 10.1086/715100 View Meta-Analysis →
Psychology Today  ·  Expert Commentary

Why Prison Often Fails to Change Behavior

Sigifredo Castell Britton, Ph.D.

Commentary drawing on clinical observation and cited psychological research: punishment-focused incarceration manages behavior through containment but does not address the emotional and psychological conditions that produced that behavior. The article argues this is why recidivism rates have remained persistently high across decades of sentencing policy reform.

Author's Argument Castell Britton argues that incarceration suppresses behavior during confinement without changing the conditions that generate it, and that release therefore tends to restore the original dynamic.
Castell Britton, 2025  ·  Psychology Today Read Article →

Bureau of Justice Statistics rearrest data for the 2005 state-prisoner release cohort, tracked over nine years.

Rearrest rates at 1, 3, 5, and 9 years after release for the 2005 BJS state-prisoner cohort. Rearrest is not the same as reconviction or return to prison.
Cohort Rearrested Within 1 Year Rearrested Within 3 Years Rearrested Within 5 Years Rearrested Within 9 Years
2005 State-Prison Release Cohort (BJS) 44% 68% 77% 83%

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2018 Update on Prisoner Recidivism: A 9-Year Follow-Up Period (2005 to 2014). Rearrest measures an arrest, not a conviction or return to prison. These figures are for the specific 2005 release cohort and may not represent current populations.

Historical Context

How We Got Here

1865
The 13th Amendment and Convict Leasing
The abolition of slavery included a loophole: "except as punishment for crime." Within months, Southern states began criminalizing Black life to feed a convict leasing system that functioned as slavery by another name, establishing the foundational link between race, criminalization, and forced labor in America.
1865, 1900s
Black Codes and the Criminalization of Poverty
A cascade of state laws criminalized vagrancy, unemployment, and social behavior associated with Black freedom. The explicit goal was social control and economic extraction, creating the legal infrastructure of mass criminalization that persists in updated form today.
1970s, Present
The War on Drugs and Mass Incarceration
The U.S. prison population grew from roughly 200,000 in 1970 to over 2.3 million today, driven primarily by mandatory minimum sentencing, three-strikes laws, and the criminalization of drug use rather than drug treatment. The United States became the most incarcerated country in the world, incarcerating Black Americans at more than five times the rate of white Americans.
2010, 2019
Reform Era: First Steps
The First Step Act (2018) and a wave of state-level reforms began to reduce mandatory minimums and expand re-entry programming. Bipartisan consensus emerged, briefly, that the system had failed. Yet structural changes remained limited, and the psychological consequences of mass incarceration received almost no policy attention.
2023
Missing Persons Enters Production
With recidivism rates unchanged and post-release mortality rates rising, director EL Sawyer begins production on a film asking the question that policy has failed to ask: what does incarceration do to the brain, and what would it take to actually bring people home?
Resources

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Research Brief

Neuroscience of Incarceration: A Summary

A 12-page overview of the peer-reviewed science informing the film, suitable for advocates, educators, and policymakers.

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Impact Guide

Community Screening Discussion Guide

Facilitation guide for organizations hosting screenings, includes discussion prompts, local resource lists, and action steps.

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Data Sheet

Mass Incarceration by the Numbers

One-page data reference covering incarceration rates, recidivism statistics, racial disparities, and post-release mortality.

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Annotated Bibliography

Full Research Bibliography

Complete annotated bibliography of all studies, reports, and primary sources referenced in the film and companion materials.

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Policy Brief

What Works: Evidence-Based Re-Entry Policy

A policy brief synthesizing research on re-entry interventions that demonstrably reduce recidivism and improve public safety outcomes.

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Press Kit

Missing Persons Press Kit

Film synopsis, director biography, high-resolution stills, and production information for media and festival submissions.

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